Acer Archives - Counterpoint

India Smart TV Shipments Declined 5% YoY in First Half of 2023

Shipments of smart TVs in the screen size range of 55” and above increased 18% YoY.
Smart TV contribution to overall TV shipments was over 91% in H1 2023.
Online channels contributed 39% of the overall shipments during the year.
Dolby Audio has become the de-facto audio technology for smart TVs.

New Delhi, Boston, Toronto, London, Hong Kong, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – October 3, 2023

India’s smart TV shipments declined 5% YoY in H1 2023, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s IoT Service. The decline was primarily due to the prevailing inflation and other macroeconomic headwinds in the country, which forced people to restrict their purchases to essential items.

Commenting on the market trends, Research Analyst Akash Jatwala said, “Many people bought their first smart TV during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially the 32” size. After experiencing the benefits of smart TV, they are now preferring bigger screen sizes for their living rooms, especially 43” and 55”. In H1 2023, the demand for bigger screen size smart TVs (55” and above) increased by 18% YoY. Further, consumers looking to upgrade their smart TVs will prefer a premium product due to the availability of better features.

Smart TV share in overall shipments reached its highest ever of 91% during the first half of 2023. This share is expected to go up further due to the increasing broadband penetration and the rising popularity of OTT platforms, among others.”

Source: India Smart TV Shipments Model Tracker, Q2 2023
Note: Xiaomi’s share includes Redmi’s share

Looking at the market dynamics, Senior Research Analyst Anshika Jain said, “The OTT services are helping in the growth of smart TVs due to the streaming of popular sports events, TV series, and movies, which creates stickiness among the consumers. Both OTT services and smart TVs offer a better viewing experience due to enhanced display technologies and the availability of features like Dolby Atmos and Dolby Vision.

While Dolby Audio surround sound has become the de facto audio technology for smart TVs, we are now seeing many smart TV SKUs also supporting both Dolby Atmos and Dolby Vision. Smart TVs with these features are now available in the price range starting from INR 20,000. With the upcoming festive season, rising consumer awareness, and broadcast of multiple sports events, especially the Cricket World Cup, on the OTT platforms, Dolby’s penetration is expected to increase further in the smart TV segment.”

QLED TVs are becoming popular in the mid-segment (INR 30,000-INR 50,000) as most of the brands are launching affordable QLED TVs with smaller screen sizes. QLED TV shipments increased more than 21% YoY in H1 2023 and their contribution in the overall smart TV sales is expected to rise further.

Market summary for H1 2023

Xiaomi continued to lead the smart TV market in H1 2023 with a 10% share. During this period, Xiaomi launched the X Pro series, Mi TV X series and Mi TV 5A Pro series.
Samsung took the second spot in the smart TV market in H1 2023. During the period, Samsung launched newer models in its QLED series and Crystal 4K series. Samsung also held a TV fest where it offered great deals on the S23 Ultra and The Freestyle projector and a soundbar with selected QLED and OLED models.
OnePlus was one of the fastest-growing brands and ranked third in H1 2023. The Y1S and Y1s Pro series were among its bestsellers. During the period, OnePlus launched QLED TV Q2 Pro.
LG took the fourth spot in the smart TV market in H1 2023. During this period, the company launched multiple OLED models, including a 97” model. LG also had multiple promotions, where it offered a free soundbar, additional warranty and cashback on selected models.
TCL ranked fifth in H1 2023 and was among the fastest-growing brands. During the period, TCL launched multiple new models, including in the 32” screen size, and held contests where it offered TCL products to the winners.
Acer (707%) and Sansui (148%) were also among the fastest-growing brands during the period. Both updated their portfolios and launched new models, which fetched good consumer response. With an increase in market share, Acer also entered the list of top-10 best-selling smart TV brands.
Incumbents such as Xiaomi and Samsung are facing competition in the market, as other players are expanding their reach, especially offline, and launching products at different price points with better features.
TV manufacturing is increasing in India with the increasing investments by OEMs in creating manufacturing capacity. Newer OEMs are also entering the market and partnering with leading brands to make their TVs.
Consumer demand is shifting towards premium TVs for bigger screen sizes and better features. But still, the INR 10,000-INR 20,000 price band captured the largest share of 37% in the overall smart TV market in H1 2023. The shipments for entry-level budget TVs (<INR 10,000) more than doubled as this segment caters mainly to first-time buyers.

We estimate that India’s smart TV market will see a decline of 7% YoY in 2023. The second half of the year will see an increase in smart TV shipments compared to the first half due to the festive season. We will continue to see the entry of new models and an increasing push towards the online channel. The market is likely to return to normalcy in 2024 and is expected to grow by around 10% YoY. The increasing preference for premium TVs will drive the overall market’s average selling price (ASP) higher.

Note: Xiaomi’s share includes Redmi’s share

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Counterpoint Research
press(at)counterpointresearch.com

Global PC Shipments Fall 15% YoY in Q2 2023, Record First QoQ Growth After Q1 2022

Global PC shipments fell 15% YoY in Q2 2023 but rose 8% QoQ.
PC OEMs’ rankings remained unchanged.
HP and Apple reported relatively resilient performance.
We maintain a double-digit YoY shipment decline outlook for 2023.
Global PC shipments will return to pre-COVID-19 levels in H2 2023.

London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – July 14, 2023

Global PC shipments fell 15% YoY in Q2 2023 but rose 8% QoQ, according to Counterpoint’s PC tracker service. Although the inventory levels continued to normalize in Q2, another double-digit YoY decline was recorded after the 28% YoY decline in Q1. Therefore, the YoY decline in Q2 can be seen as relatively stabilizing the shipment downturn since Q1 2022. Also, the QoQ growth in Q2 was the first since Q1 2022. The shipment numbers of Q2 can be considered an early sign of stabilization in the PC market. We can expect a mild recovery in H2 2023 due to the absence of solid growth drivers.

Source: Counterpoint Research

Vendors except HP and Apple suffered double-digit shipment declines

Lenovo’s solid #1 place in shipments remained unchanged in Q2, though the company still experienced an 18% YoY decline due to persistent soft demand in some markets. The double-digit sequential growth is a sign of normalizing demand and healthier inventory levels.

HP’s 22% market share was the highest since Q2 2021, while its resilient shipment numbers were a mix of early inventory correction and incremental Chromebook orders.

Dell reported sequential shipment growth in the quarter but a double-digit YoY decline due to overall demand weakness.

Apple saw a high single-digit shipment growth when compared to last year. The growth was largely due to the relatively low Q2 2022 and partially due to new product launches.

Negative factors are weakening in H2 2023

Though the global PC market shipments saw their first QoQ rise after Q1 2022 in Q2, according to Counterpoint’s Macro Index Tracker, the market may have to experience some turbulence in the second half of this year before seeing the first sunrise. Based on our checks, the end demand has picked up to become stronger than OEM shipments (sell-in), which would likely translate into accelerating re-order demand. In H2 2023, we are expecting back-to-school momentum to strengthen sales numbers coupled with potential AI-enabled and Arm laptop launches. Overall, the market is stepping away from the lull and moving toward a new post-COVID-19 normal.

Source: Counterpoint Research

Global PC shipments to return to pre-COVID-19 levels in H2 2023

We expect the QoQ rebound seen in Q2 2023 to sustain throughout the rest of the year. However, we reiterate our cautiously optimistic view on shipment performance in H2, as we still expect the shipments to decline YoY in the coming quarters before ultimately regaining their growth momentum. Therefore, we maintain our outlook of a double-digit YoY shipment decline in the 2023 full year. But the shipments will return to pre-COVID-19 levels in H2 2023.

We believe the PC inventory will enter 2024 at a healthy level after two more quarters of adjustments. Replacement demand, AI-enabled models and Chromebook renewal could be potential growth drivers even as we keep a close eye on enterprise expenditure plans.

Q1 2023 Global PC Shipments Mark Another Quarterly Decline, Gradual Recovery Expected in H2

Q1 2023 global PC shipments fell 28% YoY.
Inventory digestion likely to end in Q2 2023.
Although PC demand is expected to gradually recover in H2 2023, full-year shipments are set to decline by double-digit percentages.
Windows 11, commercial/flagship models and replacement cycles are key 2024 growth drivers.

Taipei, London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Seoul – April 17, 2023

Global PC shipments fell 28% YoY in Q1 2023

Global PC shipments dropped 28% YoY in Q1 2023 to hit 56.7 million units, the lowest quarterly numbers in the past 10 years, excluding Q1 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak interrupted manufacturing and production. The Q1 2023 decline was due to the continued delay in demand pickup amid an inventory correction during the quarter. However, we are cautiously optimistic and believe the overall PC market will start gradually recovering in the latter half of Q2 2023 which will pave the way for comparably stronger momentum in H2 2023.

Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q1 2023

The last mile of inventory digestion since mid-2022

The PC and PC components’ inventory issue has remained for more than half a year due to frozen demand and aggressive double booking. As we have already entered the post-pandemic era and are settling in with the new work environment and lifestyle, the PC industry has also adapted a lot with incremental demand from each consumer. However, increased devices per person do not imply continuous high-level demand for PCs, especially during economic downturns. Fortunately, based on feedback from OEM/ODMs, we are close to the end of PC inventory digestion which is expected by H1 2023. PC OEMs could begin executing their next step of PC strategies as consumer demand is gradually increasing.

Major OEMs, especially Apple, had a tough time in Q1 2023

Lenovo remained the world’s largest PC vendor in Q1 2023, despite a huge decline in shipments during the quarter. The company registered shipments of 12.8 million units in Q1 2023 and a market share of 23%. HP reported a relatively narrow adjustment in the quarter off a lower base in the year-ago period, maintained its second rank and retained its 21% market share. Dell’s better-than-expected performance in the US helped the company rank third in terms of global PC shipments during the quarter with a 17% market share. Apple suffered the most, marking a 38% YoY decline in shipments due to a higher base in the year-ago period and a longer replacement cycle.

We foresee slow-paced demand recovery

It is widely expected that PC demand will recover in H2 2023. PC OEMs are also looking forward to a pickup in demand following the inventory digestion. Although we did say that demand will recover post-inventory normalization, we are afraid demand recovery will take slightly longer to start accelerating. On the other hand, we believe the rate of demand recovery will vary across different categories. Based on our checks, demand for commercial segments and premium/flagship consumer product lines will likely recover faster than others and are expected to sell better in H2 2023. Arm laptops continue to be relatively vulnerable due to a lower shipment base a year ago and are more eye-catching to customers.

Inventory Correction Continues while YoY decline improves

Another YoY double-digit percentage shipment contraction is expected in 2023

Although OEM vendors reported another quarterly shipment decline in Q1 2023, they maintain a cautiously-optimistic tone for PC demand in H2 2023. We further adjust our 2023 global PC shipments forecasts and expect to see a double-digit percentage shipment decline throughout 2023 from the original high single-digit percentage shipment decline at the end of 2022. Additionally, we expect a bright 2024 due to renewal demand from Chromebook and Windows 11, coupled with a replacement cycle since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Global PC Shipments See Record YoY Decline in Q4 2022

Global PC shipments fell 27.8% YoY in Q4 2022 to reach 65.2 million units.
For the full year of 2022, the shipments declined 15% YoY.
Macroeconomic headwinds, increasing inflation pressure and frozen PC demand affected the global PC market in 2022.
Soft demand in H1 2023 will cause heavy pressure on shipments. Therefore, we do not see annual shipment growth in 2023.

Taipei, London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Seoul – January 19, 2023

Global PC shipments left Q4 2022 with a record-high YoY decline of 27.8% to reach 65.2 million units, according to Counterpoint Research’s data. Although inventory levels of several OEMs and ODMs likely peaked in Q3 2022, the year-end season failed to accelerate the PC shipment momentum in Q4. At 286 million units, the total PC shipments for 2022 also reflect a muted global PC demand with four consecutive quarters of YoY shipment declines. Therefore, we are not expecting a decent rebound in H1 2023.

Macroeconomic headwinds, increasing inflation pressure and frozen PC demand affected the global PC market in 2022, with shipments declining 15% YoY. Besides, consumers who bought new PCs were still enjoying the latest models, whereas enterprises were working more carefully on their budgets. Also, the lack of appealing functions and financial support could not bring in incremental demand in 2022, not to mention the aggressive inventory digestion target of OEMs since H1 2022.

Record YoY Shipment Decline in Q4 2022

Source: Counterpoint Research

Lenovo continued to lead the market in Q4 2022 but with a flattish 23.7% share. Mild inventory correction dragged the company’s performance amid a lackluster holiday season. Its shipments declined 17% YoY in 2022 to take a 23.7% market share. We expect Lenovo’s shipment decline to normalize along with demand revival in the Chinese market in 2023.

HP secured its second place in Q4 2022 with a 20.3% share. Its shipments declined 29% YoY during the quarter but it was the only major PC OEM to report positive sequential shipment growth in Q4, thanks to improving shipment performance in North America and a lower base in Q3. HP had the largest shipment pullback in 2022 due to weak consumer demand across the globe. The company ultimately recorded a below 20% market share in 2022. But we expect a meaningful share rebound in 2023.

Dell’s 16.7% market share was the lowest in the past seven quarters largely due to an enterprise demand slowdown. As the economic situation remains weak, the company is not expected to see rapid pick-up for commercial models in 2023, which is crucial for Dell to narrow the market share gap with HP. Therefore, we may see pressures on Dell’s share (17.4% in 2022) and shipment performance in 2023.

Apple’s comparatively tiny 3% YoY shipment decline in Q4 2022 helped the company close the book with a flattish shipment volume performance for 2022. Apple kept gaining market share at the expense of x86-based vendors and recorded a double-digit share in the second half of 2022 and 9.4% in the full year. Arm-based M-series models helped the company weather the slump cycle in both consumer and commercial devices in 2022.

Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q4 2022

Source: Counterpoint Research

Windows on Arm a key focus in 2023

Despite near-term headwinds, we could still see global PC shipment volumes higher than pre-COVID levels in the coming years, thanks to the continuous work environment and lifestyle changes and delayed procurement from both consumer and commercial sectors after H1 2023. Consumer demand will likely see gradual rebound in H2 2023 followed by a slower warm-up in enterprise procurement. Soft demand in the first half will cause heavy pressure on global PC shipments. Therefore, we do not see annual shipment growth in 2023.

Eying Apple’s M-series success, Qualcomm’s Arm-based Oryon CPU will likely enter the market and heat up Windows-on-Arm momentum in 2023. We see mid-single-digit YoY shipment growth for Arm-based laptops compared to the global laptop market’s high-single-digit shipment decline in 2023.

Background
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Global PC Shipments’ Double-digit Crash in Q3

Taipei, London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Seoul – October 25, 2022

Global PC shipments fell 15.5% YoY in Q3 2022 to reach 71.1 million units recording another wave of huge YoY declines after the severe annual and sequential falls in Q2, according to Counterpoint Research data. The Q3 2022 decline was largely due to demand weakness across both consumer and commercial markets, which was mainly driven by global inflation. Despite components shortage issues being largely resolved, OEMs and ODMs are holding a relatively conservative view on Q4 2022 and first half of 2023.

The lull in PC demand continued in the quarter despite broad promotional activities from major OEMs, especially for consumer product lines. In addition, inventory digestion processes have been activated to deal with abnormally high levels as we enter the second half of the year. Although it is the season of peak consumer device sales, PC OEMs believe the destocking process will continue into 2023. Based on our conversations with supply chain members, especially with components suppliers, the largest inventory numbers were in Q3 2022 and will likely begin to decline in coming quarters but there is uncertainty within the supply chain on when shipment growth will restart.

Global PC Inventory Accumulation Since 2022

Source: Counterpoint Research

Lack of consumer demand in the back-to-school season, shrinking enterprise purchasing due to economic uncertainty and increasing promotional events all created a drag on Average Selling Price (ASP) growth momentum and also impacted PC market revenue.

Apple reported a counter-market 7% YoY shipment growth amid muted market momentum, thanks to its new product launch in late Q2 with shipments refilled after the China lockdowns in Q2 that interrupted ODM manufacturing schedules. Meanwhile, Asus reported a 9% YoY shipment decline in the quarter, reflecting a relatively resilient performance due to its enterprise focused strategy, in line with management’s target of outperforming shipment in 2022.

Lenovo booked a 16% YoY decline, largely in-line with the global PC market, consumer demand weakness was partly offset by enterprise spending. Its 23.7% market share remains flattish compared to last year, reflecting Lenovo’s strong position efforts to cope with a shaky market.

HP took an 18% share in Q3 with 12.7 million unit shipments. This is the second quarter of lower than 20% market share by HP since 2016, largely due to its higher consumer mix, which meant it exited Q3 with a 26.5% YoY decline.

Dell also reported more than a 20% YoY shipment decline with and 17% market share. Its 12 million units were a bit higher than Q3 2020, right before Dell began to benefit from working style changes post the initial waves of COVID.

Global PC Shipment by Vendor, Q3 2022

PC market unlikely to grow until H2 2023

Overall, global PC shipments in the second half of 2022 will still be comparatively higher than the level before Covid broke out. However, Chip maker AMD claimed that PC market weakness already caused negative impacts to its results and outlook; while the management of Taiwan OEMs Acer and Asus, both shared their views that the PC industry will not recover until H2 2023.

Looking into 2023, the sky is still covered by dark clouds. We are also adjusting our 2022 shipment forecast to a 13% YoY decline on soft PC demand. Among all PC product segments, we believe Arm-based PCs and gaming PCs are poised to weather the market downturn best, with the help from Apple’s M-series offerings as well as incremental R&D efforts from chip makers and the wider ecosystem.

Global PC Shipments in Q2 2022 See Largest YoY Decline Since Q2 2013

Taipei, London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Seoul – July 27, 2022

Global PC shipments fell 11.1% YoY in Q2 2022 to reach 71.2 million units and record the largest YoY decline since Q2 2013, according to Counterpoint data. The Q2 2022 decline was largely due to lockdowns in China’s Shanghai and Kunshan, which hit the PC supply chain. However, as the OEMs’ inventory continues to accumulate amid lackluster consumer demand globally, we believe supply issues will likely get resolved in the second half of this year.

Diminishing YoY PC Shipment Growth Since Q1 2021

Source: Counterpoint Research

The macroeconomic turbulence continues to impact worldwide consumption momentum. Regional conflicts as well as global inflation have resulted in a downward sloping demand and consumer spending. Enterprises too are putting off their new purchases and device upgrades, though the orders from the commercial segment have remained more solid compared to the consumer segment. By region, the US and EU experienced relatively huge double-digit YoY declines in their Q2 2022 shipments, mainly dragged by Chromebook demand correction and soft consumer demand, as these regions had started seeing shipment growth ahead of other regions last year.

On the other hand, lockdowns in China during the quarter hit hard the laptop supply chain, as major laptop ODMs, including Quanta, Compal and Wistron, suffered manufacturing disruptions. The most harmful impacts were in April and May when we saw approximately 40% and 20% YoY declines respectively for key ODMs. Production lines resumed normal operations in the second half of May and were trying to clear order backlogs.

Major Laptop ODMs’ Inventory Levels (in $ mn)

Source: Counterpoint Research

Even though the top three brands showed a YoY decline in Q2 shipments, they all managed to keep their rankings unchanged. Lenovo maintained its leadership in the global PC market with a 24.4% share in Q2 2022. The brand’s total shipments fell 12.7% YoY to 17.4 million units mainly due to weak consumer demand, partly offset by moderate commercial orders.

HP suffered the most among the top brands in Q2 2022, reporting a 27% YoY decline in shipments from a high base last year. The sharp decline was mainly due to soft momentum for consumer products and Chromebooks. On the other hand, Dell had the smallest adjustment to its YoY shipment performance, thanks to a commercial/premium-focused product strategy.

Acer saw a 14.8% YoY shipment decline off a relatively high base in Q2 2021. Despite Chromebook weakness continuing to cap Acer’s growth momentum, its market exposure in entry- to mainstream-level laptops helped the brand take fourth place in global PC shipments in Q2 2022.

Apple reported a sharp decline of 20% YoY in its Q2 shipments largely due to supply chain disruption at Quanta’s manufacturing lines in China. The consumers too were waiting for a new MacBook series equipped with M2 chips. As a result, the company lost its fourth place in the global PC rankings for Q2 2022.

Asus’ Q2 shipments were down 7.7% YoY thanks to its commercial segment focus in recent quarters combined with consumer spending weakness entering 2022. The brand’s total shipments of 4.7 million made it share the fifth position with Apple in Q2 2022.

Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q2 2022

More shipment adjustments seen

We had cut our 2022 shipment forecast in Q1 2022 to reflect the beginning of a weakening PC demand. But with persistent inflation pressure and enterprise spending saturating, we expect order adjustments to continue even as the average selling price plateaus on easing supply constraints. Therefore, we are revising our forecast for the 2022 PC shipments to a 9% YoY decline, with potential bright spots of new M2 MacBooks and desktop demand rebounding after the post-COVID-19 reopening of offices.

Global PC Shipments Down 4.3% YoY in Q1 2022; Component Shortages Likely to Ease in H2

Taipei, London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Seoul – April 28, 2022

Global PC shipments fell 4.3% YoY in Q1 2022 to reach 78.7 million units, according to Counterpoint Research Global PC tracker. Entering 2022, the PC supply chain experienced easing component shortages and logistics issues compared to the second half of 2021. Order backlog from 2021 continued to contribute substantially to PC shipments in the beginning of 2022. This supports our previous view of another PC shipment plateau in 2022.

Our checks suggest the PC supply chain turned relatively conservative on shipment outlook in the middle of Q1 2022, largely dragged by global inflation and regional conflict, which brought uncertainties to PC demand and blurred the overall PC shipment momentum ahead. The overall PC shipments in 2022 are expected to be shy of our forecasts made at the end of 2021.

In addition, COVID-19 lockdowns in China, especially in Shanghai and Kunshan, where many laptop manufacturing lines are located, will cause shipment correction in April. Compared to OEMs, ODMs currently face more issues related to manufacturing resource allocation than component shortage impacts.

Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q1 2022

Lenovo maintained its lead in the global PC market in Q1 2022 with a 23.1% share, which was down a little compared to 2021. The brand’s total shipments of 18.2 million units were down 9.5% YoY. Lenovo performed well during the pandemic largely due to its in-house manufacturing and operation control. This advantage will continue to help the company in times of demand uncertainty or component supply issues.

HP took a 20.2% share to capture the second spot. The company saw a 16% YoY decline in shipments largely due to Chromebook losing momentum and consumer demand weakness.

Dell, on the other hand, posted a slight increase in its shipments in the first quarter of 2022, riding on the commercial/premium product strategy tailwinds. Dell’s market share expanded by around 100 bps in Q1 2022.

Apple continued its success with the M1 MacBook series to see 8% YoY shipment growth in Q1 2022, which boosted its market share by 100 bps YoY. Asus saw 4% YoY shipment growth thanks to its gaming and commercial products expansion. Acer continued to struggle due to Chromebook sales losing momentum and ended the quarter with a 1% shipment decline. Asus and Acer both had ~7% market share in the quarter.

Component shortages likely to ease in H2 2022

In the past two years, the PC supply chain has spent much effort dealing with demand uncertainties caused by COVID-19 and component shortages. But since late 2021, demand-supply gaps have been narrowing, signaling an approaching end to supply tightness across the broader ecosystem. Among all PCs and laptops, the supply gap for the most important components such as power management ICs, Wi-Fi and I/O interface IC has narrowed. We have seen OEMs and ODMs continuing to accumulate component inventory to cope with uncertainties arising from COVID-19. Combined with the abovementioned consumer and Chromebook demand weakness, we believe component shortages are going to ease in H2 2022.

PC Component Shortage Outlook for 2022

Global PC Shipments up 3.1% YoY in Q4 2021; Component Supply Improving

London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – January 20, 2022

Global PC shipments reached 90.3 million in Q4 2021 to maintain their YoY growth momentum at 3.1%, coming on a relatively high base in 2020. The situation on the component supply and logistic fronts continued to improve but at a slow pace. The shipment forecast for Q1 2022 remains optimistic, mainly due to a solid demand and improving component supply. OEMs and ODMs are also expecting some easing of pressure on PC components.

In Q4 2021, the supply gap for the most important PC components, such as power management IC, Wi-Fi and I/O interface IC, narrowed. We believe both OEMs and ODMs will continue to accumulate component inventory to cope with uncertainties cropping from COVID-19. Therefore, we do not see any big risk to PC shipment numbers due to supply backlogs.

Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q4 2021

Lenovo continued to lead the global PC market in Q4 2021 with a 24% share, slightly shy of its share in Q4 2020 but still having its highest unit sales in 2021 at 21.7 million. HP took a 20.5% share with 1% YoY growth driven by the easing of component shortage. Dell posted a 15% YoY growth in the quarter riding on the strong momentum from its commercial/premium product strategy. Apple’s shipments in Q4 2021 remained largely unchanged thanks to the M1 Macbook’s success. On the other hand, Asus saw a single-digit YoY growth in Q4, while Acer saw a single-digit YoY decline with market shares of 6.8% and 6.7%, respectively.

Background

Analyst Contact:

William Li

Follow Counterpoint Research
press(at)counterpointresearch.com

Global PC Shipments Grow for Sixth Consecutive Quarter; Chromebook in Slow Lane

London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – October 18, 2021

Global PC shipments marked their sixth consecutive YoY growth in Q3 2021 at 84.2 million units. This came despite the ongoing component shortages and other supply constraints. However, the 9.3% YoY growth during the quarter implied decelerating PC shipment momentum after four consecutive quarters of double-digit YoY growth since Q3 2020. In addition, most OEMs and ODMs are not seeing any shrinking gap between orders (demand) and shipments (supply).

In Q3 2021, the global PC supply chain remained constrained due to component shortages related to power management IC, radio frequency, audio codec and others. We believe there is no solution to this demand-supply mismatch till mid-2022. ODMs are still pulling in chips inventory to tackle any downside risks. Besides, unstable global logistics and manufacturing site shutdowns in Southeast Asia and China add more uncertainties to PC supplies.

PC demand remained solid during the quarter. Commercial PC demand is gradually heating up while consumer PC momentum is decelerating. Chromebook turned out to be the biggest drag during the quarter, as both government and education orders were largely fulfilled in the first half, in addition to the increasing availability of COVID-19 vaccines and reopening of offices and schools across the world. We believe Chromebook demand will not disappear, just take a break this year.

Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q3 2021

Lenovo was in first place again in the third quarter with a 23.9% market share after shipping 20.1 million units, slightly above the Q2 number mainly due to its operational flexibility. HP’s 20.5% share and 6% YoY decline were largely due to Chromebook slowdown as well as component shortages. Dell had a 30% YoY growth in the third quarter due to a relatively lower base and its commercial/premium product focus. Apple’s shipments grew 11% YoY in Q3 2021 riding on the replacement demand for the M1 Mac. Asus shipments were boosted by both consumer and commercial segments. The brand took fifth place in Q3 beating Acer, which recorded a 3% YoY growth due to Chromebook slowdown.

Background

William Li

Follow Counterpoint Research
press(at)counterpointresearch.com

Global PC Shipments up 45% YoY in Q1 2021; Chip Shortage Impact to Continue in H2 2021

Global PC shipments grew 45% YoY in Q1 2021 on solid demand and a low base in the same period in 2020 due to COVID-19.
Shortages of key IC components will continue to affect the shipment schedules of PC brands and ODMs.

The recovery reported by the PC market in H2 2020 gained momentum in H1 2021. Global PC shipments grew 45% YoY to 75.6 million in Q1 2021 thanks to robust demand across different categories and a low base in the same period last year due to the COVID-19 outbreak. However, PC shipment volumes were down 14% sequentially from Q4 2020 due to seasonality.

With a 24% market share, Lenovo took the first place again in Q1 2021, followed by HP at 23% and Dell at 17%. The overall momentum of the PC market was mainly driven by the growth in gaming notebooks and surging demand from the work-from-home and study-from-home segments, which stimulated Chromebook sales.

Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q1 2021 (units in million)

In Q2 2021, PC shipments will remain resilient with the pent-up demand from Q1 2021 extending to this quarter. We believe the top six vendors will continue to dominate the market with over 85% share.

Stepping into H2 2021, the momentum from the previous half will continue and reach a peak with back-to-school (some will be virtual classes) demand as well as the pent-up demand from H1 2021. Premium models with higher ASPs could take the lead via big promotions, which may squeeze out Chromebook’s market share in H2 to some extent. In all, we predict a 16.3% YoY growth in 2021, with global shipments reaching 333 million.

Lead time will ease only in late H1 2022

On the other hand, our checks suggest ODMs’ component inventory levels are relatively higher. But they are still facing shortages of key components like power management IC, display driver IC (with display panel) and CPUs. We have found a 20%-30% gap between orders (end-demand) and actual shipments (supply), largely owing to the component shortage beginning H2 2020.

Lead Time (weeks) for Key Components in PC/Notebook Segments

PMIC and DDIC have faced the biggest gaps in the PC segment, with the lead time almost two times more than the normal before the COVID-19 outbreak. For PC CPUs, it was gently improving in late H1 in several sub-segment products. Some vendors also said the demand for audio codec IC and LAN chip remained unsatisfied and would continue to remain so in the second half of this year. WiFi SoC has also faced relatively low inventory levels, which will prove to be a drag on 2021 global PC shipments.

Since we do not see any meaningful foundry capacity expansion in H2 2021, it is unlikely that the lead time for key IC components would recover from the current status. Therefore, PC brands and ODMs cannot fully solve the shortage issue and clear the orders backlog. We expect the demand-supply gap to gradually normalize in late H1 2022.

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Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q1 2021 (units in million)

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Lead Time (weeks) for Key Components in PC/Notebook Segments

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